The Daily Decision for 7.10.18 - All About The Growth?


The State of the Markets:

Don't look now fans, but the S&P 500 is up three days in a row and has finished in the green five of the last seven sessions. This in the face of all the trade fears and hand wringing about the potential impact an extended trade war would have on the economy. As such, investors appear to have a little more spring in their step right now.

Some folks are calling the recent string of green screens a result of a little something known as "buy the rumor and sell the news." Only this time the adage has been turned on its head as traders sold on trade war fears and now appear to be buying on the idea that reality won't be as bad as expected.

Yet, as I opined on Monday, I think there is a lot more at work here than some age-old Wall Street trading strategy. As in, growth trumps trade fears. In fact, it's been my experience that growth can trump just about any problem a business or economy might have.

Got a financial problem? No worries. If your revenue is growing, the problem will likely shrink or even disappear over time.

So, despite the fact that there has been no movement on the trade front with China and the Europeans appear to be hopping mad about the current tariffs, the stock market is advancing. Why? Because in short, growth can fix everything.

We Can Afford the Trade War

Another way to look at this situation is that with the economy humming along, the U.S. can actually afford to mess around with a trade war for a while. So what if GDP loses a few tenths of a percent this year? It looks like we've got a few extra tenths ...

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The Daily Decision for 6.11.18 - Buckle Up, This Will Be Interesting


The State of the Markets:

Good Monday morning and welcome back to the land of blinking screens. I hope you are buckled in as we've got a big week for the markets coming. So, before we review the state of ...

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The Daily Decision for 6.6.18 - Upgrades to CORE and TRADING Models Coming Soon!


Today's Model Review:

COMING SOON: UPGRADES TO CORE AND TRADING MODELS
We are excited to announce that the latest upgrade to our models will be implemented within the next month. The CORE model will take a more growth-oriented stance and ...

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The Daily Decision for 6.5.18 - A New Era For Stock Market Valuations?


The State of the Markets:

I've been saying for some time now that I believe the current corrective/consolidation phase will ultimately be resolved to the upside. Or put another way, I don't think we're seeing the beginning of the next ...

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The Daily Decision for 5.31.18 - The Big Reason Not To Be Negative Here


The State of the Markets:

In my humble opinion, one of the keys to success in the investing business is the ability to remain both objective and flexible. Early in my career, I would occasionally "fall in love" with my ...

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The Daily Decision for 5.30.18 - Is "Italeave" The Next Problem?


The State of the Markets:

Well, that was interesting. I don't know about you, but I had a pretty severe case of déjà vu yesterday as the global markets freaked out over the potential for an "Italeave." We've definitely seen ...

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The Daily Decision for 5.29.18 - Time To Dust Off The Euro-Crisis Playbook?


The State of the Markets:

Good morning and welcome back. One of the great things about taking some time away from the keyboard and your daily routine is it gives you time to reflect on the big picture stuff as ...

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The Daily Decision - The Question: How Much is Enough?


The State of the Markets:

In pondering the macro picture over the weekend, it occurred to me that the current environment can be summed up with one simple question: How much is enough? As in, how much do stock prices ...

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The Daily Decision for 2.13.18 - What's Next? History Suggests...


The State of the Markets:

One of my favorite jokes about Wall Street goes something like this: The first time something happens on Wall Street, it's called it a trend. If it happens twice in a row, it's a tradition. ...

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The Daily Decision for 2.12.18 - The Biggest Change Seen Last Week Was...


The State of the Markets:

I like to start each week by reviewing (a) my key market indicators and (b) the macro picture of the current market environment. As such, my Monday morning market missive is intended to cover both. ...

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The Daily Decision for 2.9.18 - Is This Really About Rates?


The State of the Markets:

I usually don't write on Friday mornings. However, with the Dow experiencing its second quadruple-digit dance to the downside of the week yesterday, I figured it was probably time to make an exception.

The goal ...

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The Daily Decision for 2.6.18 - What is Real and What is Artificial?


The State of the Markets:

During times of market stress, one of the biggest challenges is trying to determine what is real and what is artificial.

When markets spike - in either direction - there is usually some sort of ...

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