Are Investors Now Fighting The Fed And The Tape?

I'm not sure whether it was the late Marty Zweig or his buddy Ned Davis who originally coined the phrase, but it appears that after yesterday, anyone long the stock market may now officially be fighting both the Fed and the tape!

Investors came into Wednesday in a hopeful mood. And at one point, the Dow Jones Industrial Average sported a gain of nearly 400 points on the session. This was no small feat given the fact that the tally on the Dow's dance to the downside since December 3 stood at more than 2150 points and the venerable index had fallen -12.1% from the late-September high. And when glancing around at the rest of the major indices, that number actually looks good compared to the drop of -13.1% seen on the S&P 500, the dive of -16.03% on the NASDAQ, the decline of -15.8% on the S&P Midcaps, and the -20.9% hit the Russell 2000 had endured.

Nevertheless, the thinking was that stocks were oversold (this is true), sentiment had become bleak (also true - and usually a good thing from a mean-reversion perspective), valuations had improved (check), the government was going to stay open (it turns out the jury is still out on that one), and that Jay Powell was going to usher in what was sure to be a stunning Santa Claus rally.

There was hope that what is commonly referred to as a face ripping rally would propel the S&P 500 back into positive territory for the year and everyone could enjoy their New Year's Eve parties knowing that their 401K's had grown a smidge in 2018.

Bah Humbug

But a not-so funny thing happened on the way to the stock market party. Yea, that's right, it didn't happen. Instead of the expected Kris Kringle imitation, ...

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Here's Hoping Santa Makes The Trip

It was a very busy weekend in St. Louis, visiting our grandson, daughter and son-in-law, so I'm going to keep the subjective side of this report short and let the models and indicators do most of the talking. But first, ...

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Window "Undressing" May Be At Work

The headlines blared that stocks soared Wednesday in response to improvements in the trade war. Apparently, China was making noise about a new policy designed to increase access to the country's economy for foreign companies. Diving into the story, it ...

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Was That The Soybean Bottom?

It was another wild ride on Wall Street yesterday. Stocks stumbled hard out of the gate, following the lead of most global markets. By 11:00am EST, the DJIA was down more than 500 points, had broken below the October lows, ...

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The Good News: Valuations Are Improving

Due to system maintenance, updates to several key data/models in our indicator boards were not available over the weekend. Thus, our weekly review of market indicators will be postponed until tomorrow morning. But as the title of this morning's missive ...

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All's Well That Ends Well, Right?

The financial press reported that stocks remained "volatile" on Thursday. But since the Dow ended the day with a loss of "only" 79 points and the S&P 500 fell just 4, the attitude appeared to be, all's well that ends ...

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Tariff Man Set The Stage, Then The Machines Took Over

I opined after Monday's "relief rally" that the move had been a bit underwhelming and that uncertainty appeared to have crept back into the market. By Tuesday morning, traders began to realize that Trump may have over-tweeted the trade "deal" ...

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Is Uncertainty Back In The Mix So Soon?

While it may sound strange, perhaps the best word to describe the market action on Monday is, disappointing. Yes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average popped 288 points. The S&P 500 gained 1.1%. The NASDAQ 100 surged 1.5%. And oil jumped ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 12.3.18 - Fears Fading Away As Santa Loads His Sleigh


The State of the Markets:

Unless you've been living in a cave or don't have access to a TV, computer, smart phone, or even a newspaper, you likely know that Presidents Xi Jingping and Donald Trump laid the groundwork for ...

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Fears Fading Away As Santa Loads His Sleigh

Unless you've been living in a cave or don't have access to a TV, computer, smart phone, or even a newspaper, you likely know that Presidents Xi Jingping and Donald Trump laid the groundwork for a trade deal Saturday night ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 11.30.18


Today's Portfolio Review

The G20 meeting presents a quandary here. While this week's clarity from the Fed represents a significant improvement in the near-term environment, the potential for bad news from the Trump/Xi dinner could easily push things the other ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 11.29.18 - One Worry Removed


The State of the Markets:

It didn't take the news-reading algos long to find what they were looking for in Jerome Powell's speech yesterday. And to his credit, the Fed Chairman didn't make it difficult for either the computers or ...

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