The NEW Daily Decision for 9.4.18 - The Pause That Refreshes?


The State of the Markets:

Now that the S&P 500 has managed to move to new all-time highs, the obvious question becomes, where do we go from here?

Our furry friends in the bear camp contend that the prolonged period of consolidation that occurred between January 26 and August 24 means the current run for the roses is likely doomed to fail. The bear thinking is the January peak had been overdone and the bulls simply don't have the macro firepower to keep things going. And the fact that it took the bulls nearly 7 months to make a fresh new high is Exhibit A in the latter argument. There seems to be a general consensus that long pauses in between new highs aren't a good thing.

Those seeing the market's glass as at least half empty also suggest that seasonality, the possibility that earnings have peaked, the Fed's plans to keep raising rates, the mid-term election uncertainty, the trade war, and the President's legal issues will combine to keep stock prices from getting overly enthusiastic in the near-term.

However, if one removes the talking head chatter and the daily news flow, the actual history of long pauses between new highs in the stock market appears to be encouraging.

The History Of Long Pauses

According to Ned Davis Research Group, there have been seven prior instances where the S&P 500 experienced a long pause between new all-time highs (defined as a period of at least 6 months). So, the first point is that while long pauses between new highs aren't the norm, they are not all that unusual either.

Digging into the data, we find that once the long pause ended and the S&P 500 made a new high, the bulls tended to remain in control of the game for ...

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The NEW Daily Decision - A Step In The Right Direction


The State of the Markets:

It always seems to happen this way. Last week the title of my lone missive was, "All is not right with the world." The key point I wanted to make was that while the U.S. ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 8.13.18 - Fresh Worries, But No Crisis


The State of the Markets:

A new worry about contagion, rising inflation, political risks, geopolitical issues, concerns about peak growth (especially in semiconductor-land) and, of course, the trade war all combined to create a weak ending to what had been, ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 8.6.18 - Goldilocks Looks To Be Alive And Well


The State of the Markets:

The headlines blared that the July's Jobs Report was a "miss." This was due to the fact that, according to the Labor Department, the economy created 157,000 new jobs last month, which was below the ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 8.2.18


THE LATEST UPGRADE TO DAILY DECISION IS LIVE!

We are excited to announce that the latest upgrade to the Daily Decision service was implemented on Monday, July 9.

The new, state-of-the-art portfolio will be comprised of three parts.

  • 50% Risk ...
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The NEW Daily Decision for 8.1.18 - A Worry Worth Considering


The State of the Markets:

To be sure, there will be a lot of keystrokes used to talk about Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) today. Frankly, it is very interesting to hear all the analysts talk about Apple's upside potential given the ...

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The NEW Daily Decision - As Good As It Gets?


The State of the Markets:

After a sloppy June, stock market investors appear to be enjoying the month of July. So far at least, the S&P 500 sports a gain of 3.75% for the month and is inching closer to ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 7.23.18 - It's Time To Be Careful On That Ladder


The State of the Markets:

Since we are deep into summer vacation season, I'm going to keep things brief this morning and let the indicators do most of the talking.

My take on the current market action is the consolidation ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 7.19.18 - A Look At The Big-Picture


The State of the Markets:

The original purpose for my oftentimes meandering morning market missive was to identify the driving forces behind the market action. The thinking was that putting to paper (so to speak) my thoughts on why Ms. ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 7.16.18 - Divergences Are Yellow Flags


The State of the Markets:

The NASDAQ - you know, the index where most of the market's hot stocks tends to trade - closed Friday at a fresh new all-time high. The S&P 500 appears to have broken out of ...

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Update: The NEW Daily Decision Portfolio Positions

To review, the NEW Daily Decision Portfolio is designed to be a risk-managed, multi-strategy approach to the markets.

To start, 50% of the portfolio is allocated to our Risk Managed Growth strategy, which itself is comprised of 3 management strategies ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 7.11.18 - Let's All Play: Breakout or Fakeout?


The State of the Markets:

CNBC's "Fast Money" kicked off their show Tuesday afternoon with a game they called "Breakout or Fakeout." To be honest, I usually have the T.V. on mute the vast majority of the day. However, this ...

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