Can The Bears Find Their Long-Lost Mojo?

The "State of the Markets"

As we embark on a fresh new calendar year (aka the scorecard in our business), the question of the day is – in my mind, in my mind, anyway – will the bears will be able to locate their long-lost mojo anytime soon?

To be sure, it has been a while (a very long while, actually) since our furry friends have enjoyed more than a day or two in the sun. So, with the market having effectively been a one-way street since the November 2016 election, it is easy to see why complacency is exceptionally high, passive index investing is all the rage, and every 1% dip in the S&P 500 is considered a buying opportunity.

While nearly everyone in the game knows that when you mix extreme valuations levels with rising rates, bad things tend to happen – eventually. And yet, the bulls have refused to yield the floor for record-setting stretches. Recall that this is now the longest period of time without a 3% correction in decades and that markets cycles experiencing volatility levels this low are exceptionally rare. As such, every trader worth their salt has been waiting (and waiting, and waiting, and waiting!) for the inevitable pullback to begin.

So, will this market once again ignore the seasonal tendencies and correct a bit to start the new year? Or will it be more of the same? Unfortunately, only time will tell, of course! But, I for one am going to be prepared for anything in the first few weeks of the year.

My Big-Picture Bottom Line - I see enough weakness in the indicators and enough complacency to continue to suggest that this is not a low-risk environment.

In terms of investing strategy, this means that your portfolio turbo-chargers should be ...

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The Daily Decision for 12.28.17 - Up 24.3% YTD


2018 Performance Update: Daily Decision LEADERS +24.3%
(vs. S&P 500 19.8%)


Today's Model Review:

LEADERS Model: The LEADERS currently holds positions in the Technology, Industrials, Health Care, and Financial sectors.

However, given the rotation occurring in market leadership, we are ...

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The Daily Decision for 12.27.17 - Trades Coming Soon in Leaders Model


2018 Performance Update: Daily Decision LEADERS +24.1%
(vs. S&P 500 19.7%)


Today's Model Review:

LEADERS Model: The LEADERS currently holds positions in the Technology, Industrials, Health Care, and Financial sectors. Heads up - given the rotation occurring in market leadership, ...

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The Daily Decision for 12.22.17 - Leaders Up +24.5% YTD


2018 Performance Update: Daily Decision LEADERS +24.5%
(vs. S&P 500 19.9%)


The Daily Decision Models:

The Daily Decision is designed to be a simple, easy-to-follow e-letter service showcasing 3 different model portfolios. The LEADERS model is the flagship, growth oriented ...

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The Daily Decision for 12.18.17


2018 Performance Update: Daily Decision LEADERS +24.0%
( vs. S&P 500 19.5%)


The Daily Decision Models:

The Daily Decision is designed to be a simple, easy-to-follow e-letter service showcasing 3 different model portfolios. The LEADERS model is the flagship, growth ...

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The Daily Decision for 12.4.17 - Up +22.5% YTD


Publishing Note: The calendar is challenging this week and we will publish Daily Updates as time permits. However, we will publish TRADE ALERTS before any adjustments are made to the portfolio.

The Daily Decision Models:

The Daily Decision is designed ...

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Is The Exuberance Rational This Time Around?

Just when you thought it might be time for stocks to pull back and for traders to perhaps rethink the low-volatility, steady march higher, the major indices blasted to fresh all-time highs yesterday. Just when you thought tax reform (or ...

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Will Low Volatility Mean Lower Risk Next Time?

Well, it's official. According to Ned Davis Research, this is now the longest period in history without the S&P 500 experiencing a correction of 3% or more. For those of you keeping score at home, NDR tells us that as ...

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Headline Risk Leads To Sloppiness, But So Far, So Good

Good morning. We've got a new week on tap so let's get started with a review of my key market models/indicators and see where we stand. To review, the primary goal of this exercise is to try and remove any ...

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Is That Weakness Creeping In?

Good morning. We've got a new week on tap so let's get started with a review of my key market models/indicators and see where we stand. To review, the primary goal of this exercise is to try and remove any ...

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Bulls Starting To Feel The Love

One of the primary arguments coming out of the bear camp these days is the stock market game is just too easy right now. Our furry friends suggest that when things become too one-sided for an extended length of time ...

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Bulls Showing Signs of Fatigue

Good morning. We've got a new week on tap so let's get started with a review of my key market models/indicators and see where we stand. To review, the primary goal of this exercise is to try and remove any ...

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Comments