Good Enough, But...

Good morning. We've got a new week on tap so let's get started with a review of my key market models/indicators and see where we stand. To review, the primary goal of this exercise is to try and remove any subjective notions about what "should" be happening in the market in an attempt to stay in line with what "is" happening in the markets. So, let's get started.

The State of the Trend

We start our review each week with a look at the "state of the trend." These indicators are designed to give us a feel for the overall health of the current short- and intermediate-term trend models.


View Trend Indicator Board Online

Executive Summary:

  • The short-term Trend Model remains positive, however the march higher is showing signs of fatigue.
  • Both the short- and intermediate-term Channel Breakout Systems remain on their 8/22 buy signals.
  • The intermediate-term Trend Model is in good shape - albeit a bit extended.
  • The long-term Trend Model remains positive.
  • The Cycle Composite remains negative AND out of sync with the trend of the market at this time. Note that the composite calls for one more significant move to the downside over the next two weeks before a bottoming process.
  • The Trading Mode models finally all agree that stocks are trending. But, the levels of the indicators aren't exactly robust.
  • The bottom line as far as price is concerned is the trend is up, but is looking a little tired.

The State of Internal Momentum

Next up are the momentum indicators, which are designed to tell us whether there is any "oomph" behind the current trend...


View Momentum Indicator Board Online

Executive Summary:

  • Both the short- and intermediate-term Trend and Breadth Confirm Models are positive, which suggests the march higher is "in gear."
  • The Industry Health ...
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Out of Sync

I have written many times about the tendency for the market to follow various seasonal patterns. Frankly, it is eerie how often the S&P 500 winds up mirroring these historical cycles. To be sure, the market doesn't always follow the ...

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The Next Bear Won't Look Like The Last One

Don't look now fans, but the United States is enjoying one of the longest economic expansions in history. In fact, First Trust tells us that if the economy can avoid slipping into recession for the next 18 months, this will ...

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Steady As She Goes

Good morning. Although we're getting a late start to the week, market analysis definitely falls into the "better late than never" category. So, let's go ahead and review my key market models/indicators and see where we stand. To review, the ...

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The Daily Decision for 10.3.17 -- LEADERS Model +17.5% YTD

Publishing Note: I am traveling the rest of the week and have some very early commitments. Thus we will not publish Daily Updates but we will publish TRADE ALERTS before any adjustments are made to the portfolio.

TODAY'S PORTFOLIO REVIEW: ...

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If You Knew What Would Happen Next...

As I have mentioned a time or two in the past, I think one of the biggest lessons investors (professional or otherwise) need to learn is to put the T.V. on mute, to avoid reading everything on the internet, to ...

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Indicator Review: Looking For Confirmation

Good morning. Sadly, the first week of October starts with the news of the deadliest gunman attack in U.S. history. So, let me first say that our thoughts and prayers go out to the victims, the injured, and all those ...

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The Daily Decision for 9.29.17 - LEADERS up +16.3% YTD

TODAY'S PORTFOLIO REVIEW:

LEADERS Model: The LEADERS model currently holds positions in the Technology, Financial, and Industrial sectors. It is worth noting that Materials are about to break into the top ranks and Health Care is also performing well. As ...

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What, Me Worry?

As long-time readers are likely aware, I believe in trying to keep portfolios "in tune" with the primary market trend. In this case, we're talking about the bull market in stocks, which began either on March 9, 2009, September 26, ...

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Final Thought On Valuations: The Bears Could Be Wrong

I've spent a fair amount time recently talking about the various risks of the current market environment. In short, my view is that risk factors are elevated at this time from a macro perspective. I have suggested that this is ...

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Another Take on Valuation - It's Not As Bad As You Might Think

Yesterday's dive in the high profile FAANGs, which was highlighted by a $7.87 (4.49%) decline in Facebook (NYSE: FB) led to renewed discussion in the bear camp about the risk levels in the overall market. To hear the our furry ...

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Bulls Ignore Seasonality and March On

Good Monday morning and welcome back. It's a new week, so let's start things off with an objective review of my key market models/indicators and see where we stand. To review, the primary goal of this exercise is to try ...

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