The NEW Daily Decision for 10.29.18 - How Low Can It Go?


The State of the Markets:

Are we having fun yet? To be sure, the recent stock market correction has created some angst as the bears have knocked -7.55% off the DJIA, -9.63% off the S&P 500, -12.60% off the NASDAQ Composite, -12.86% from the Mid-cap index, and -15.69% from the Russell 2000 small-cap index. So, as they like to say on TV, most of the major indices are definitely in "correction territory."

However, the fact that the market corrected should not have come as a surprise to readers of this oftentimes meandering morning market missive. For example, back in July and August I began emphasizing the point that many of my favorite long-term market models were not in their happy places and that "risk was elevated."

And I am pleased to report that we did take some precautionary measures in various portfolio strategies to take both the beta and the exposure of the portfolios down a notch or two.

However, it is important to remember whilst patting one's self on the back that taking defensive measures is only half the battle! The next trick is to identify when the coast is clear and to attempt to benefit from the pullback.

Which brings us to the title of this week's macro market missive: How Low Can It Go?

Obviously, this is a tricky subject. And to review, I don't run portfolios based on my view or make market calls. No, on that note, I prefer to stick to the weight of the evidence from my major market models. However, experience has taught me that it can be tough to pull the trigger when the indicators tell you to take action - especially during emotional markets. Thus, having some sort of clue as to how far the bears could take things during ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 10.22.18 - Sifting Through The Conflicting Evidence


The State of the Markets:

From my seat, the most important question on this fine Monday morning is if stocks are currently in the "retest" stage of a waterfall decline, which means that we are likely closer to the end ...

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The NEW Daily Decision - Checking The Playbook


The State of the Markets:

My guess is that after Wednesday's action, everyone is feeling a little better about the state of the stock market. While the bears and their algos mounted another series of attacks yesterday, good prevailed over ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 10.15.18 - Understanding The Algos and Systematic Sellers


The State of the Markets:

Before we dive in to any sort of subjective analysis about the current state of the markets or what may or may not come next, I think it is important to note that our Indicator ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 10.12.18 - What Is Real And What Is Artificial?


The State of the Markets:

What a difference a few days can make in this business, right? Seven days ago, the Dow closed at a fresh all-time high. The market narrative at the time was well known. The economy was ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 10.11.18 - Assuming The Worst


The State of the Markets:

Not surprisingly, I spent much of yesterday afternoon on the telephone speaking with advisors about what the heck was happening in the stock market. With the Dow just five days removed from an all-time high, ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 10.8.18 - Time To Hit Reset?


The State of the Markets:

As long-time readers are aware, the main objective of my oftentimes meandering market missive is to identify the driving forces behind the action in the stock market. For the past 20+ years, my thinking has ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 10.3.18 - TRADE ALERT EXPECTED TODAY

The NEW Daily Decision Portfolio

NOTE: TRADE ALERTS LIKELY TODAY

Our Risk Managed Growth System is telling us to reduce exposure today. As such, we will be cutting our positions in SSO and QLD in half.

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The latest upgrade ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 10.1.18 - Bulls Remain In Charge, But...


The State of the Markets:

It was a busy weekend filled with family, travel, and the passing of a pet, so I'm going to skip the subjective analysis of the stock market and let the indicators do most of the ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 9.24.18 - Will Valuations Spoil The Bull's Party?


The State of the Markets:

In spite of the escalating trade "skirmish" and a long list of purported negatives, stocks continued to trudge higher last week with the DJIA finishing at a new all-time high on Friday. The S&P 500 ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 9.17.18 - The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly


The State of the Markets:

My quote system confirms that stocks finished higher on the week and that the S&P 500 gained ground all five days last week. And with the venerable index closing Friday at the second highest level ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 9.10.18 - What If Something Bad Actually Happens?


The State of the Markets:

In case you have somehow missed it, the ten-year anniversary of Lehman's collapse is upon us. The fall of Lehman Brothers, and perhaps more importantly, the fact that Wall Street didn't bail out the firm, ...

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