Trading lessons from the last 48 hours of nonsense

Here's how I came up with the 51 and 67.5 levels of late-day resistance today:

ExtremesClosesRange of Resistance
High2119.52113.25
Low1981.51982
Difference138131.25
50% move6965.75
61.8% move85.581.25
50 % Retracement from Intraday Low2050.52047.252047.25 - 2051
50 % Retracement from Closing Low20512047.75
61.8% Retracement from Intraday Low20672062.752062.75 - 2067.5
61.8% Retracement from Closing Low2067.52063.25

If 2067.25 if broken on the upside, there's a strong likelihood that ES eventually moves to a test of the highs. If, somehow, 67..25 holds, then perhaps we see another downdraft to new lows below 1981.50.

In the more bullish case: If you take 2068 - 1981.50, you get 86.50 (or 86 if we use 1982) for what appears to be a five wave move off the bottom. If we take 86 from the all time intraday high of 2119.50, that gives us a pullback target of 2033.50. If we take 86.5 from the all time closing high of 2113.25, we get a pullback target of 2026.75. So the expected pullback range - even if we assume a move back up to the highs - is 2026.75 - 2033. Those two numbers also correspond with the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels for the 1981.50 - 2068 up move that just occurred (2035 and 2024 respectively - with 2047 being the 23.6% retrace).

That is why I am reticent to dump uvxy - despite the obvious pain in holding this right now.

In retrospect, the minute 2021 was violated on a 60-minute close yesterday, we should've been out of the bearish plays. We could've tried them again at 41 - 44.50 and 51 with stops on closes above 45 and 51 respectively. We would have lost on all ...

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Critical global markets technical update for our readers & friends!!

BREXIT VOTE LEADS TO FAST AND FURIOUS DOWNSIDE ACTION

Here are some random observations before we get into today’s analysis:

  • Brexit vote done… out the Brits will go.The realization of that fact is causing uncertainty globally and is forcing the ...
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Gold looking more interesting as it pulls back

Gold is almost a strong buy (based on reward / risk) as it trades at 1265. If we can get it at 1258, it'll be nearly perfect from a r/r basis. If and when it gets down there, we'll be ...

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Key crude oil, S&P and NAZ futures technical levels

S&P futures have resistance at 2076 and 2082.75. Downside target remains 2030.25.

NASDAQ resistance clear at 4376.25. Targets start at 4250.

Crude oil should keep pulling back. Support / targets are 42.57, 40.43, 38.70 and 36.96.

The strategy is to ...

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Crude top-of-the-hour update

Crude closed the hour above the 44.65 resistance - indicating to us that the very, very short-term bear stance may be wrong. However, we do see - even though we're wrong overall - a pullback to 44.30 (from 44.83 currently) ...

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Short-term outlook for stocks

We are hitting the lower edge of our projected upside resistance range now.

We now feel - based on the patterns / waves that have traced out on the chart - that the market will top at or very near ...

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That being noted, look to buy dips on intraday basis until 2094 is touched

...the first level at which new longs can be initiated would be 2059 and then 2053

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Updated outlook for stocks / stock futures

The chart below shows the S&P e-Mini futures (currently at around 2065).

  • My feeling is that we should see them continue up to the 2094 - 2107 range for the current wave higher (wave (v) of iii of 3). That ...
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Crude chart dictating this morning's moves

Thinking crude bounces off of wave "(((iii)))" low and up to 39.13 to 39.75 before going back down.

We covered our hideous short position this morning and turned and went long via UWTI in anticipation of the continued bounce. We'll ...

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Why stay short of crude right now?

Should be nearing a 3rd wave top and commencing a 4th wave pullback soon. Two possible targets for the puck are 36.07 and 35.59 - either of which would put us in the black for the current DWTI long.

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Where to buy?

While we remain patient in waiting for a pullback in crude in which to sell our crappy DWTI position, I thought I'd share the projected buy targets (very short8) for the equity futures. I'm looking at 1977 and 4316.25 as ...

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Anything resolved today? 1 of 3 things the bulls needed to happen...

The bulls needed to hammer three nails to secure the bears' coffin in the short-term:

1. Hold the 1900 level of support on the ES chart above (60-minute chart)

2. Conquer the 61.8% Fibonacci projection line - which acted as ...

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Reviews Average Rating          

         
Excellent advice these last turbulent months...
         
Wide stop loss and small at profit taking but that's their style.
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