The Weekly Top 10:


THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) New uncertainties surrounding a July rate cut, but that will be resolved next week.

1a) The recent rally has not been fueled by economic or earnings growth…nor by an impending trade deal.

1b) Who has the upper hand in the trade war? Look at Huawei vs. U.S. Ag products going forward.

2) History shows that equating “rate cuts” with “QE programs” is a mistake.

2a & 2b) “Don’t fight the Fed” is only a good rule to follow…well after the initial rate cut.

3) “QE programs” & “rate cuts” have two different targets; thus the timing of their impact is much different.

4) The Chip stocks gave back virtually all of Monday’s gap-opening gains by Friday.

5 & 5a) The S&P 500 is at a critical technical juncture. Further upside follow-through will be quite bullish.

6) TSLA…Strong bounce off of $180. It now has to break $250 to give it another leg higher.

6a) Ford Motor still has a lot of potential. A meaningful break above $10.50 will be very bullish.

7) The U.S. economy is the strongest in the world…but it IS still weakening!

8) Great call on the infrastructure stocks. Take some profits & raise sell-stops.

9) A simple fact: Full-year earnings estimates for the S&P are falling towards zero.

10) Summary of our current stance.


Short Version:

1) Friday’s strong employment report raised some uncertainties about how aggressive the Fed’s will be in their upcoming easing policy. Luckily, a lot of that uncertainty should be resolved by Chairman Powell’s testimony to Congress mid-week next week. Since we have long believed that the Fed is more “market dependent” than they let-on…and the fact the market is at record highs, I believe the Fed will signal that they ...

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Morning Comment: Chip Stock Rally Fading


Lots of volatility away from the stock market

The closing numbers on the three major averages disguised some decent activity in the markets yesterday. In fact, if you looked at everything EXCEPT the major stock averages, you would have thought ...

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President Trump Just Blinked; Part II


President Trumps blinks first on the trade issue

Ok, my job is to analyze the markets...but I obviously have to pay close attention to politics in order to do this. Besides, it's something I've been doing all ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10: President Trump Just Blinked.


THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1 As expected, President Trump blinked first (but earlier than I thought).

2) With the Huawei news, the upcoming action in the semis will be KEY.

2a) The “trade truce” should move attention ...

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Morning Comment: Banks & Homebuilders; Headed in Different Directions?


Quiet day yesterday, but some lagging groups bounced nicely

We saw another low-volume day yesterday…which is something you don’t see very often on the second to last day of a quarter…but given the upcoming meeting between President ...

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Morning Comment: WTI crude, COP, SLB all Flirting with Resistance..


Tight range yesterday

As expected, it continues to be a low volume week this week…as investors await to hear what comes out of the meeting between President Trump & President Xi at this weekend’s G20 meeting. Although the ...

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Morning Comment: Stocks Pricing-in Best Case Scenario (On Several Fronts)...June 26, 2019 - BTFNow

Poor day yesterday, but not a disaster.

When the stock market drops 1% on a given day, it usually raises a lot of concerns. However, yesterday’s 1% decline…after the big bounce we’ve seen this month…was hardly ...

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Morning Comment...Gold Ripe for a Pull-Back...June 25, 2019 - BTFNow

Quiet Day On Monday

As expected, it was a relatively uneventful day for the 3 major stock market averages yesterday…as they all saw very small moves…and volume was about 12% below the average daily volume we’ve seen ...

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Morning Comment...Are Emerging Markets About to Break-out?...June 24, 2019 - BTFNow

Due to the “quadruple witch” expiration of futures and options on Friday, it’s impossible to draw any conclusions from the action in the stock market that day. So the big jump in volume on Friday meant absolutely nothing…..It ...

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The Weekly Top 10....History tells us the rate cuts do not impact markets anywhere near as quickly at QE programs.

THE WEEKLY TOP 10

Table of Contents:
1) Needless to say, the S&P stands at a very important technical juncture.

2) History shows that the stock market acts much more quickly to QE than it does to rate cuts.

3 ...

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Morning Comment...Markets Are Priced For a Zero Chance of Disappointing News...June 19, 2019 - BFTNow


Nice rally yesterday, but the "internals" were not as strong as the averages.

Well it was certainly a good day for the markets yesterday…as we got some positive news on two fronts. First, ECB President Draghi said that they ...

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Morning Comment...Visa/Mastercard are Getting Extended...June 18, 2019 - BTFNow

We had the lowest volume of the year yesterday…as just 2.26bn shares exchanged hands in the composite volume…so there’s no question that investors are waiting to hear what the Fed has to say in their announcement ...

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