Morning Comment: Ripe for a SHORT-TERM Bounce Soon

The futures have been trading all over the place since they opened last evening at 6:00pm. When we went to bed last night, they have been down by more than 1%...then they flipped to the upside overnight and stood in positive territory by over 1% at one point...and now (as we write) they’re down almost 1% once again. The bond market is also seeing a big move…with the yield on the 10-yr note down to almost 1% (1.054% to be exact). We’d also note that gold is bouncing back and acting like a “flight to safety” asset…after it has worked-off the extreme technical readings it was showing a week ago.

As we highlighted over the weekend, the market has become very oversold on a short-term basis and thus it has become ripe for a sharp bounce. Remember, even the worst bear markets in history have seen many sharp bounces along the way, so even if you think this correction will turn into a bad bear market, the odds that it will move into bear market territory in a straight line are quite low.

If we have one concern about the near-term, its that a lot of people are looking for a short-term bounce, so maybe it will be a shorter one and/or a smaller one. However, the RSI chart on the S&P 500 index closed below 20 on Friday…and got as low as 16 (before the mysterious late-day rally on Friday). When you combine this with the other signs of capitulation we saw last week and highlighted in our weekend piece (very extreme levels of negative breadth, a huge jump in volume…etc.)…and we would still expect a good sized bounce in the market very soon.

Last Monday morning, we said that we believed investors ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10



THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) A recession will mean another credit crisis…even if its smaller than the last one.

2) Victory lap! Also, if you read our work regularly, we hope you will support us.

3) We ...

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Morning Comment: Keeping Your Head While Others are Losing Theirs



We definitely saw signs of capitulation yesterday…more than we saw on Tuesday. Not only was breadth similarly horrible (32 to 1 negative on the S&P 500 and 10 to 1 negative on the NYSE Composite Index), but we finally got ...

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(Quick) Midday Comment: Another Leg Higher For Gold???


It’s still early in the trading day, but gold is breaking above its closing highsfrom January 31st in a fairly significant manner. In other words, it could sell-off later in the day and close below its highs of $1 ...

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Morning Comment: What if AAPL Breaks Below Support?


AAPL announced last night that they will miss their quarterly revenue target due to the coronavirus…and that “it will be a slower return to normal” as well……..The decline in AAPL is not a disaster…as it is trading only 3 ...

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Morning Comment....Friday Declines...TSLA Still VERY Overbought


  • Will the “Friday decline” begin a day early this week?
  • China finally admits to under-reporting the extent of the coronavirus.
  • The starting point of the coronavirus is MUCH different than SARS & H1N1. (That’s important.)
  • TSLA announces $2bn stock offing…at ...
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Can FedEx (FDX) Finally Breakout?


Whether FDX can break meaningfully above its 200 day moving average or not should be very important for the stock (and UPS as well).


Ten days ago, we highlighted how UPS had become very oversold…and thus had become ripe for ...

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Morning Comment: Use Some Common Sense!


  • Stock investors need to be using more common sense right now.
  • If they do that, they'll turn more cautious.


We saw an headline this morning that read, “Futures unchanged over concerns about the coronavirus.” CONCERNS…WHAT CONCERNS??? The stock ...

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Morning Comment: TSLA...MSFT.


  • More good news out of China (this time on trade)…is helping the stock market again this morning.
  • Bond and commodities are telling a slightly different story, but it’s not a major concern yet.
  • “Forced buying” led to a parabolic ...
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UPS....Very Oversold Near-Term.



We believe investors need to be very careful on this week's bounce in the stock market, but if there is one stock that looks like it’s getting washed out on a technical basis, it’s UPS. So this one is ...

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The Weekly Top 10: Key Support Levels? Look at the 50 day moving averages.


Below you will find an abbreviated version of this week's edition of my financial newsletter, "The Maley Report." I give the full "Table of Contents"...and the "Short Versions" of our first 3 bullet points from this weekend (along ...

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Morning Comment: Netflix (NFLX) at a Key Technical Juncture


We continue to get a lot of earnings reports…so although the broad stock market did not do much yesterday, some individual stocks did see some big moves. One of those was Netflix (NFLX)…which fell over 3.5% after they ...

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