Morning Comment: Is the "forced selling" in the crypto market over for now?


By mid-afternoon yesterday, the S&P 500 Index had fallen to 3,858…within spitting distance of the 3,800 level that so many people (including ourselves) have been saying was a good target for a short-term bottom for the stock market. (Some people think it will be THE bottom for this decline.) In other words, the index pretty much got there yesterday…before the market was able to put in a nice late-day rally. This morning, the futures are trading higher (over 1% higher on the S&P 500 and almost 2% higher on the NDX Nasdaq 100 Index). Thus, it looks like this bounce just might have some legs.

One reason to think that this rally could indeed last more than just a day or two is the action we’ve seen in the crypto markets since Wednesday. On that day, the crypto market got absolutely crushed…on the news that Terra had lost its 1 for 1 peg to the dollar. The problem was that many of those cryptocurrencies are not very liquid. Even the market liquidity for bitcoin has shrunk substantially this year. As these cryptos were getting hit hard of Wednesday, a lot of leveraged investors started getting margin calls. However, since the crypto market is not as liquid as it once was, it is very likely that these leveraged investors could not sell enough of those assets to meet their margin calls. Therefore, they had to go to assets that ARE quite liquid…and they sold those to raise enough money to meet those market calls.

We believe it is likely that these crypto investors turned to the big cap tech names to raise the money they needed…..Let’s face it, t he common stocks that these cryptocurrency investors own are very unlikely to have big positions in “old economy” stocks like GE and ...

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Morning Comment: Is a



During the first years of our career, nobody would ever have asked, “How much will the markets have to go down before the Fed will shift their monetary policy?” Back then, the thought that the Fed would think about anything ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10



THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) Stagflation IS here…and it IS going to get worse.

2) On a technical basis, we sit at a CRITICAL juncture for the S&P 500 and NDX 100.

3) A “re-rating/re-valuation” process in ...

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Morning Comment: How long will a short-term bounce last?


The stock market stands at a precarious position and thus any further downside movement...either now, or after a short-term bounce...will be very negative for the stock market on a technical basis.

The Nasdaq fell to its lowest levels of the ...

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Morning Comment: A break market in bonds will not be bullish for stocks.


There are some pundits who believe that a major sell-off in bonds will be bullish for stocks because the sellers of those bonds will use the proceeds to buy stocks. What these pundits don't understand is that the seller of ...

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Morning Comment: Long-term bonds are quite ripe for a bounce (and thus fall in yields).


  • We saw some more technical damage yesterday, so the stock market needs to bounce quickly and sharply to keep its recent upside momentum.
  • The Treasury bond market is ripe for a bounce (fall in yields). This could take place EVEN ...
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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) The divergence between the stock and bond markets go way beyond just the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-yr note.

2) Saying that the stock market has “priced-in” what is going on ...

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Morning Comment: Tighter financial conditions are bearish for stocks.....Justin Rose.


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It was another wild day for the stock market…as the NDX Nasdaq 100 index saw ...

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Morning Comment: "If Stocks Don't Fall, the Fed Needs to Force Them."


The second most powerful person at the Fed (by far) is usually the NY Fed President. Well, one of the former NY Fed President's is telling us that the Fed actually WANTS the stock market to decline going forward....thus investors ...

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Morning Comment: The XLK tech ETF is testing key resistance


Morning Comment: The XLK tech ETF is testing key resistance.


  • The “internals” were mediocre yesterday, but the rally still pushed the S&P and Nasdaq closer to their key resistance levels.
  • If the XLK tech ETF can break its key resistance ...
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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) Don’t watch the 3-month T-bill when looking at the yield curve….Also, you don’t need a recession to knock down an artificially inflated stock market.

2) We got some important proof last week ...

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Morning Comment: Will the end of the quarter bring an end to some artificial demand for stocks?


Morning Comment: Wil the end of the quarter bring an end to some artificial demand for stocks?


  • Good day for the stock market yesterday. (Better “internals”)
  • However, the yen continues to bounce…and the end of the quarter could signal ...
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