THE WEEKLY T0P 10
Table of Contents:
1) The Fed is telling us that they’re that it will take more than just a further slowdown in growth to cause them to shift their policy.
2) It will take more than a weaker economy to push inflation down to an acceptable level.
3) Deep corrections and bear markets don’t bottom at 16x-17x earnings.
4) The MACD charts on the SPX & NDX still look encouraging (but they have to rally more immediately).
5) Don’t look for pre-pandemic levels to give much support for the market or economy.
6) Another “lower-low” in the chip stocks. That’ not good at all.
7) What is the rally in the Treasury market really mean for stocks?
8) China’s stock market needs a breather near-term, but it does look quite good.
9) The 200-week moving average is critical support for the STOXX Europe 600 Index.
10) Summary of our current stance.
1) There is little question that the focus for investors is starting to shift a big from concerns over inflation…to the concerns about slowing growth. The problem in our minds is that too many investors don’t realize that a significant slowdown in growth is not going to force the Fed to shift their policy away from their current policy. They’ve told us that their number one fight is against inflation…even at the expense of growth. Too many investors don’t want to believe them…and that’s a mistake.
It is amazing to us that so many people think the Fed will change their policy in a meaningful way if the economy slows further. The Fed has been emphatic about telling us that they will do whatever it takes to fight inflation…even if its at the expense of the economy. In other words, unless we see some major ...