Morning Comment: What is SAP telling us?


As a reminder, I will be presenting at the MoneyShow's Virtual expo in this Wednesday. Click here to sign up for this conference for free. Thank you and I look forward to the Show!


Well, we have just over a week to go before the election. Of course, that doesn’t mean that we’ll get rid of one of the “uncertainties” in the market place...because the Presidential election AND/OR several of the Senate elections could easily be contested. Either way, based on what we’ve seen over the weekend and this morning, there will still be some considerable uncertainties surrounding a 2nd wave (or 3rd wave...depending on how you count them) of Covid-19 hitting many parts of the northern hemisphere.

We all know that the treatments for Covid-19 are a zillion times better than they were in the spring, so the death rates will be much, much smaller. We also know that the lock-downs are likely to be less stringent than they were last spring. However, given the level of the U.S. stock market right now, those assumptions are already priced-in...and then some!

We’re definitely seeing a preview this morning of what this healthcare crisis could have on the markets as we move into the colder months. The futures are trading lower on the news of a big spike in Covid cases around the world (with the U.S. seeing almost 90k infections for the second straight day)...and renewed lock-downs in more and more countries (like Italy now). However, probably a bigger story this morning is the negative news out of Germany’s SAP...which is down 20% after they cut their full year revenue estimates and said a fresh wave of lock-downs would hurt demand through the first half of next year.

Needless to say, the potential of this kind of development is ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


I was out of the office and out of contact with the markets on Thursday and Friday in order to attend a memorial service. Therefore this weekend’s piece will be quite a bit shorter than usual...and there will only be ...

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Morning Comment: Yields testing resistance....NFLX testing support.


The market finished the day with a decent gain yesterday, but it closed well off its early afternoon highs. The gain also came on lower volume and mediocre breadth (2.4 to 1 positive on the S&P 500)...so the action so ...

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Morning Comment: LA Dodgers!


For the first time in the history of Major League Baseball, a team has come back from a 0-3 deficit to win their League’s Championship and move-on to the World Series. That’s right, the LA Dodgers were able to come ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Quick Note: I will be participating in the next "MoneyShow Virtual Expo" that runs from October 27-29. I will be presenting early in the afternoon on October 28th and I hope you will join me. They have a fabulous line-up ...

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Morning Comment: Bullish "internals" this week.


We got more evidence yesterday that this week’s “breather” in the stock market will be followed by a further rally into the election. We’ll still have to watch the action in the market for a couple of more trading days, ...

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Morning Comment: Keep Watching the Dollar


We had been expecting a pull-back in the stock market after its nice two-week rally, so the decline in the market yesterday was not a surprise. In fact, it can be seen as normal and healthy. Of course, if the ...

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Morning Comment: NY Sports Teams Have Become Irrelevant (and that's not good).


It should be a quiet day today...as the bond market is closed for Columbus Day (or whatever the call it now)...and a lot of market participants (both bond & stock market players) have taken a three-day weekend. To be honest, ...

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Morning Comment: Next Week Will Be Very Important For The Stock Market


Our apologies for not publishing yesterday, we had a power outage and it took quite a long time to get back up and running yesterday. Anyway, our feeling is that the only thing that will really be remembered from the ...

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Morning Comment: Bank stocks and the yield curve


The stock market rallied nicely yesterday...and although talk of a fiscal deal out of Washington and news that President Trump was leaving the hospital got a lot of the credit for the advance...we believe the falling odds of a contested ...

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Morning Comment: A bullish development for banks???


We find it interesting that the stock futures are trading meaningfully higher this morning given that we cannot find any new-news on a fiscal deal. The S&P futures are basically signaling that they’ll claw back everything the S&P lost on ...

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Morning Comment: October...deja vu all-over again...or not???


  • October in NE: Colors, Red Sox, Tom Brady...Wait, what?
  • September corrections usually bottom in October.
  • Chip stocks are a great leading indicator...and they're rising.
  • But so are the truckers...and they're falling.


October in New England: Colors, Red Sox, Tom Brady...Wait, ...

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