Morning Comment: The University of Iowa "Wave"


Morning Comment: The University of Iowa "Wave"


  • “Quadruple Witch” expiration today.
  • The current trade talks are not focusing on any of the all-important long-term issues.
  • The global intelligence community was taken completely off guard by the Saudi attacks.
  • China’s stock market stands at a key technical juncture.
  • The University of Iowa “Wave”….and what it says about the people of our “fly over” states.


The big "expiration" means we won't derive much from today's action

Today is a “quadruple witch” expiration day, so it’s going to be hard to derive much (if anything) from today’s action. The average volume on these big expiration days (that take place once a quarter) is about 4.9bn shares on the composite volume. That’s more than 50% greater than the average daily volume we’ve seen over the past three yeas, so you can see how these quarterly expirations can skew the data for the “internals” on these days.

The U.S. & China are talking...but only about an interim deal

The major stock indices did not see much of a move yesterday…as we saw a mirror image of the previous day. Instead of selling off early and then bouncing back to the “unchanged” level like it did on Wednesday, the stock market rallied in the morning and rolled back over in the afternoon. If there was anything that stood out to us yesterday, it was the news that the newest trade negotiations between the U.S. and China involved the issues of currencies, fentanyl and agricultural products. In other words, the key issues like intellectual property and verification that could create a major and important long-term agreement are not on the agenda. On the one hand, maybe that increases the odds that we’ll have an “interim” deal, but on the other ...

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Morning Comment: Housing Stocks overbought...Still bullish on energy.


Our calls on the housing stocks have worked out very, very well over the past year. We turned bullish on the group in the 4th quarter of last year...and reiterated that stance over the summer when the ITB home ...

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Morning Comment: Bullish "Game Changer" for Energy Stocks


  • Many see the bounce in oil will be short-lived.
  • However, the "risk premium" HAS to be raise for crude.
  • This should put a floor under crude.
  • This, in turn, should give investors confidence in the group.
  • A group that is ...
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Morning Comment: Can Energy Stocks Finally Outperform?


  • Stocks a bit lower on higher oil prices, but the response if fairly benign so far.
  • Not everybody is so sure that the production will come back quickly…or that the situation will not escalate.
  • The Transports (led by the rails ...
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Morning Comment: TLT Treasury ETF Nearing KEY Support.


My call for a sharp pull-back in the Treasury market (and thus a sharp rise in long-term interest rates) just before Labor Day was SPOT-ON! When the vast majority of pundits were saying that central bank liquidity would keep both ...

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Morning Comment: We will NEVER forget.


  • Scooby-Do, where are you?
  • Will Trump continue to follow the script on trade?
  • The "rotation" is algo driven right now.
  • A "tradable" bounce in rates or a long-term change in trend?
  • Tech will face headwinds for many, many months.
  • AXP ...
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Morning Comment: Forget about "rotation" for most groups.


As we pointed out recently, the Treasury market had reached an overbought level (in the TLT Treasury ETF) that had never been seen before…and the oversold level on the yield of the U.S. 10yr Treasury note had reached a ...

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Morning Comment: Will "Fed Speak" Move the Markets This Week?


It's September, but it's not the calendar that's the concern!

Well, here we are...September...traditionally the worst month of the year. HOWEVER, the real concerns for investors should derive from the developments of the past few ...

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The Weekly Top 10: Look out below.


The Weekly Top 10


1) If you want to maximize your investment returns, spending a lot of time trying to figure out when the next recession is coming is a not good use of your time. We can still have ...
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Morning Comment: Bitcoin Testing VERY Important Support


The bond market is not reacting to China's dovish comments on trade.

The equity futures are trading almost 1% higher this morning due to dovish comments out of China on the trade negotiations. They said they wanted to emphasize ...

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Morning Comment: Important Leadership Groups Testing Key Support (again).


  • Even though the consumer is strong, the U.S. economy is definitely slowing…and earnings growth in the U.S. is grinding to a halt. The trade war is a headwind for both of these issues.
  • The Russell 2000, the Transports ...
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Morning Comment: The Fed's New Message is Clear.


The market will impact the Fed, not the other way around.

We don’t know why people keep talking about the Fed when it comes to the upcoming moves for the stock market. That is a waste of time right now ...

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