Morning Comment: Chip stocks: Great run, but they're getting very overbought near-term.


We find it comical that some pundits think that since a couple of Fed members have come out to say that the Fed is unlikely to cut back on their QE program any time soon, it means that we should totally ignore the other Fed members who have been talking about tapering back on QE if the vaccines help unlock the economy. THIS is how the Fed changes their stance!!! They get a few Fed members to talk about a change...while a few others say that nothing is going to change for the foreseeable future!

This is the lesson the learned in May of 2013 when the big “taper tantrum” took place. They quickly had to pull-back on their initial statements about “tapering”...and they spent the rest of that summer going back and fourth...with some members saying that they might taper...while others said it was unlikely that they’d taper. Most of them said it was “data dependent” and that if the data improved then they would indeed taper. Well, the data didn’t improve at all that summer...but they still tapered in the fall. Why? Because interest rates were WAY below what they should have been given the underlying economic data...and they realized that they needed to “normalize” rates back up to the level that was justified by the economic growth of the time. They were always going to taper. However, they felt that they had to do it in a way that would not create another tantrum...so they went back and fourth in their public comments until they did what they knew they were always going to do: taper. (That strategy worked out quite well. They were brilliantly about to adjust from the initial mistake they made in May of 2013.)

We believe that the are following the exact same ...

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Morning Comment: The Next Two Weeks Could Be Key For Bitcoin


The stock market took it on the chin a little bit yesterday, but it came on breadth that was basically flat for the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite and the NYSE Composite indexes. It also came low volume of less ...

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Morning Comment: What if the dollar actually rallies for a while?


There is no question in our minds that what those people did when they took over the capital building this week was appalling...and disgraceful. However, what in the world would have happened if they had been terrorists? Sure the Capital ...

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Morning Comment: One Day Does Not Make a Trend....S. Korea....Gold.



The S&P 500 Index fell 1.48% yesterday...and in the 21st century, there have only been three other years where the first day of trading gave us a decline of more than 1%. Those years were 2001, 2008, 2015. The average ...

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Morning Comment: Bring on the trivia!


Welcome to January...which is “trivia month.” That’s right, after the first day of trading...the third day of trading...the first week of trading...and the first month of trading...of every new year, we hear all sorts of trivia about what the action ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Since we are constantly getting new readers, we like to start our weekend piece with a quick note every once in a while...and the first piece of the year would seem to be a good time to do this once ...

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Morning Comment: It's (still) All About Liquidity


We have been out for several days due to the holiday, so although we have certainly kept an eye on the markets over the past week, we don’t have our fingers on the pulse of the markets to the degree ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10.....2021 Preview


Two quick notes: First, due to the holiday, we will not be sending out a weekend piece next weekend. Second, this weekend’s piece deals with our macro outlook at next year. Thus we talk about our view on the broad ...

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Morning Comment: Chip Stocks Starting to Get Quite Overbought


We have been quite positive on the chip stocks for a while now...and we turned particularly bullish on the group three months ago, in early September. Back then we said that although it was a good idea to pare-back on ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10



THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) The stock market: Bullish near-term, cautious for 2021.

2) Many global stock markets look great near-term as well.

3) One concern is that sentiment is starting to get quite bullish.

4) A ...

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Morning Comment: Is The Trend For Long-Term Interest Rates About To Change?


With this morning’s employment report, this morning is a perfect time to update the chart on the yield U.S. 10-year Treasury note. Some of this will be merely be a review of things we’ve highlighted in the past, but given ...

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Morning Comment: The stock market rally is a global one!



Well, we got off to a great start to December in the stock market with a better than 1% rally in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, but we have to admit that it came on lower volume than we ...

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