Morning Comment...Markets Are Priced For a Zero Chance of Disappointing News...June 19, 2019 - BFTNow


Nice rally yesterday, but the "internals" were not as strong as the averages.

Well it was certainly a good day for the markets yesterday…as we got some positive news on two fronts. First, ECB President Draghi said that they were prepared to cut rates and reinstate QE if the economy were to stumble further in coming months…and President Trump & President Xi announced that they would meet at the G20 meeting next week. The rally left the S&P 500 less than 1% from its all-time highs…and gave a whole new meaning to the term “Fed drift” the day before the Fed’s announcement/press conference.

However, the internals for the rally were not very impressive. Although volume was higher than the previous two days, it was still 7% below the average daily volume for the year. Also, the breadth (advancers vs. decliners) was mediocre (at best) for a day where the averages rallied 1% or more. It was just 2.8 to 1 positive for the S&P 500, 3 to 1 for the NYSE Composite Index, just 2.3% for the Nasdaq Composite (which 1.4%) and 2.9 to 1 for the Russell 2000. These are not the kinds of numbers that you’d like to see on such a strong move….but if the global central banks are going to engage in a coordinated stimulus plan immediately, the stock market could indeed go higher.

Markets strong despite a weaker economy & declining earnings estimates.

The stock market has now rallied 6.3% in just 2.5 weeks and as we mentioned above, it’s less than 1% from its all-time highs. This has taken place despite a slightly weaker U.S. (and global) economy and a lowering of the consensus 2019 S&P 500 earnings. We ...

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Morning Comment...Visa/Mastercard are Getting Extended...June 18, 2019 - BTFNow

We had the lowest volume of the year yesterday…as just 2.26bn shares exchanged hands in the composite volume…so there’s no question that investors are waiting to hear what the Fed has to say in their announcement ...

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Morning Comment....Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the "Wimp Factor"....June 17, 2019 - BTFNow

It was a relatively quiet week last week…as the major averages saw their smallest moves since the stock market began to pull-back on May 3rd. This lack of movement also came on the lowest weekly volume of the year ...

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The Weekly Top 10...Any Upcoming Rate Cuts Will Be Determined by the Data and the Markets, NOT the Calendar...June 16, 2019 - BTFNow

THE WEEKLY TOP 10

Table of Contents:

1) If the Fed remains “market dependent”, they won’t cut rates until the market experience more stress.

2) There’s no question that the recent bounce has NOT been fueled by improving ...

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Morning Comment...Stock Poised For Another Leg Lower....June 14, 2019 - BTFNow

The last two days have been ridiculously quiet in the market place…as the composite volume has been just been just 2.47bn and 2.5bn shares on Wednesday & Thursday. Only the Friday before Memorial Day has seen lower ...

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Morning Comment...Ford has a lot of potential upside over the next 18 months...June 13, 2019 - BTFNow

For the first time in many, many weeks…we had a VERY uneventful day in the broad stock market yesterday. Sure, we’ve had plenty of days when the stock market closed very near the unchanged level for the day ...

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Morning Comment...This Rally is Losing Steam, But the Healthcare Stocks Look Good; June 11, 2019 - BTFNow

The stock market finished the day yesterday nicely in positive territory and the futures are trading higher this morning…so everything seems right with the world. The problem is that the “internals” in the market have not been very good ...

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Morning Comment. June 10, 2019 - BTFNow

Morning Comment....The Dollar is Testing Key Support

Friday’s weaker-than-expected employment report led to a sharp drop in long-term bond yields…and to higher odds that the Fed will cut interest rates this summer. This, in turn, led to ...

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The Weekly Top 10; June 9, 2019

THE WEEKLY TOP 10

Table of Contents:

1) Our call for a bounce worked well...but we don't think it will continue.

2) The Fed has shifted, but not enough to think they'll act before another decline in ...

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Morning Comment...Near term, stocks are oversold.

Below you will find my "Morning Comment" from Monday June 3, 2019. In it, I explained why I thought the stock market was ripe for a sharp bounce. Stocks did indeed rally last week, so this call worked out quite ...

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