Weekly Wrap-Up + Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, FAS, XRT, SOXX, FDN

Last week, Markets started on the week side. As I have noted before, there is resistance at 2080, and support between SPX 2060 and 2040. On Tuesday, SPX touched 2044 and bounced back. It was then a volatile, but range-bound market. Stocks sold off on Wednesday again. On Thursday morning, there was buying in the morning, but it faded towards the close. Things looked better on Friday, as Greece submitted a new proposal for the bailout. Still, SPX was not able to push above 2080.

Since the market was swinging back-and-forth, we did not trade as much. Here are the closed trades for the week:

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Tonight, at the time of this writing, there was a "compromise proposal" to be further discussed among the EU leaders. It is early in the morning in Europe. We will have to see if the negotiations can make further progress.

For the week, the Dow was up +30.3 points; SPX was essentially unchanged; Nasdaq slipped 11.51 points. Gold slid, but, remained around $1160/ounce. Oil (WTI) fell to about $52/barrel. Let's see where the US markets stood after Friday's close:


On Friday, SPX added +25.31 points to close at 2076.62. It closed above its 10-day MA. The MACD moved up.


Nasdaq gained +75.3 points to close at 4997.7.

Both SPX and Nasdaq experienced a good bounce on Friday, closing above their respective 10-day MAs. It will be a busy week next week, not only because of Greece, but, Fed watch and China's GDP should be in focus on Wednesday. In addition, earnings season will kick into gear. For the new week, we will have to see how much progress will the bailout talks make overnight to get a sense of how investors will react to begin the week. By Tuesday, some attention should be shifted towards earnings. Here are some notable earnings for the week:

Thursday (AM) EBAY, GS, C, UNH, SHW, PPG; (PM) GOOG
Friday (AM) GE, HON, STI

On the support side, we will still be watching 2060-2040 for SPX. If the market looks past Greek issues and pushes above 2080, the first resistance will be 2100.

Banks are kicking off the earnings season this time, so, financials will be very important. Internet heavyweights will keep the sector in focus. Semiconductors have been really weak, so, we'll keep an eye on those.

Sector Watch

FAS (financial)

FAS managed to close above its 10-day MA. JPM and WFC will give us the first clues on Tuesday. Several banks, including BAC, will report on Wednesday, followed by GS and C on Thursday.

XRT (retail)

XRT is surprisingly strong, closing above its daily MAs for the week. YUM reports on Tuesday afternoon. COST had a nice week last week and should continue to be strong. MNST may be setting up for a breakout is the broader market continues to bounce.

FDN (internet)

FDN closed right at its 30-day MA. NFLX's earnings on Wednesday should be interesting once again; but, its options may be too expensive to play. EBAY and GOOG are more palpable, as the options are more reasonable. We will take a closer look during the week.

SOXX (semiconductor)

SOXX has been really weak, falling for 3 weeks straight! BRCM, SWKS, AVGO have all fallen back. Let's see if these can bounce up from last week's lows.

Energy stocks may continue to be weak, as Iran is close to reaching a nuclear deal, which could lift its embargo and in turn place more oil supply on the market. We will keep an eye on the energy stocks as well. It will be interesting to see if the solar stocks finally decouples from the oil stocks.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

Posted to Ecstatic Plays on Jul 12, 2015 — 11:07 PM
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