Weekly Wrap-Up + Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, XLE, BTK, FAS, SOXX, TLT

Markets fell last week.  Things were sluggish on Monday and Tuesday.  But, Wednesday saw a steep drop, led by profit-taking in the biotechs.  On Thursday, stocks struggled to bounce off of the lows.  Buyers came in on Friday, and semiconductors popped in the last thirty minutes as INTC was rumored to be in talks to buy ALTR.

We had a pretty good week.  Through the volatility, I kept lots of cash and traded on both sides and was able to come away with some nice trades, as mentioned in Thursday night's article.  Here are the closed trades for the week:

For the week, the Dow was down 414.99 points; SPX fell 47.08 points; Nasdaq lost 135.2 points.  Gold traded higher, closing above $1193/ounce.  Oil also moved bit higher, closing just above $48/barrel (WIT).  At the time of this writing, Asian markets were mostly up.  Here's where the US markets stood after Friday:


On Friday, SPX added +4.87 points to close at 2061.02.  It closed below its daily MAs.  The MACD was down.


Nasdaq gained +27.86 points to close at 4891.22.  Its daily MAs flattened.

Both SPX and Nasdaq closed below their respective daily MAs.  For the new week, the market indices are looking fragile.  The daily MAs are pinched, and the MACDs have turned bearish.  We might see some buying to start the week.  But, the market could be cautious as the latest jobs reports arrive later in the week.  SPX has resistance around 2070-2080, and first support at around 2050.  Below 2050, a quick visit to 2000 is not out of the question.  I have mentioned for months now that if the biotechs don't pull back, the overall market should remain strong.  So, let's see how the biotechs do this week, after last week's sharp selling.  Financials are, at best, range-bound.  Energy stocks are still struggling.  Semiconductors will be interesting to watch.

Sector Watch

FAS (financial)

FAS's daily chart resembles that of the SPX.  The sharp fall on Wednesday last week took FAS down to below its daily MAs.  Credit cards look very vulnerable (C, V, MA, AXP).  GS, JPM, and WFC all closed below their respective daily MAs.

XLE (energy)

XLE was basically flat last week.  EOG and SLB showed some signs of life.  But, CVX and XOM were still weak.  APA, APC, and OXY were neutral.

BTK (biotech)

BTK took a tumble last week, but, buyers came in on Thursday and Friday.  We'll have to see if things can hold for now.  We'll talk about the names during week.

SOXX (semiconductor)

The last 30 minutes of trading on Friday really boosted this group higher.  ALTRA and INTC were rumored to be in conversation for a merger.  XLNX also jumped, completely recovering the week's loss.  SWKS and AVGO have been among the strongest.

TLT (bonds)

I find TLT interesting.  After a sharp fall in February, it has been trying really hard to climb back up.  It closed above its 10-day MA last week.  I think this could continue to float higher.  This may be a nice, longer term play.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

Posted to Ecstatic Plays on Mar 30, 2015 — 1:03 AM
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