Weekly Wrap-Up + Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, FAS, BTK, XLE, SOXX

Last weekend, in my Market Forecast, I said,

"For the new week, I think we will see more volatility. For SPX, 2070 is a support, below which the next support lies at 2050. Nasdaq has support first around 4900, then at around 4850. This could be a struggle. There will be profit-takers locking in big profits. On the other hand, there are likely still money on the sideline trying get in."

Indeed, it was a very volatile week.  The market was up on Monday.  Then, it took a steep drop on Tuesday, with SPX ending below 2050.  Wednesday, things slid a little more, with SPX touching 2040.  But, Thursday saw a huge bounce, bringing SPX all the way back to 2065!  Friday morning was weak, with SPX reeling back to below 2050.  But, buyers came in in the afternoon and drop SPX back above 2050 for the close.

We had a mixed week.  Here are the closed trades:

For the week, the Dow was down 107.47 points; SPX fell 17.86 points; Nasdaq dropped 55.61 points.  Oil (WTI) took a big drop on Friday, closing under $45/barrel.  Gold also dropped, closing below $1160/ounce.  At the time of this writing, Asian markets were up, with China leading the pack, gaining +1.8%!  Here's where the US markets closed on Friday:


On Friday, SPX fell 12.55 points to close at 2053.4, above 2050.  Its daily MAs and MACD moved lower.


Nasdaq dropped 21.53 points to close at 4871.76.  It closed just above its 30-day MA.  The MACD fell.

SPX closed below its daily MAs, but, Nasdaq still managed to close just above its 30-day MA.  For the new week, things still look volatile.  On Wednesday, we will hear from the Fed on the outlook of rates rising.  Techs are still hanging on, so, we will be watching the semiconductors and biotechs.  SPX is testing 2050.  If it falls below, 2020 is the next support; but, it could test 2000.  Financials will be very important, which fared better than most sectors last week.  Energy stocks are still weak, but, they did not fall as much as the oil did on Friday, which I found very interesting.  Are buyers bottom-fishing energy stocks already?

Sector Watch

FAS (financial)

FAS popped back above its daily MAs on Thursday, but, went back down on Friday.  It still closed above its 30-day MA, though.  WFC looks strong.  JPM and GS are neutral.  BAC is a little weak.  Regional banks, such as PNC and STI, are stronger.  V and MA look a bit fragile, but, C is very strong.  We'll have to see how these trade before the Fed meeting.

BTK (biotech)

BTK is still very strong.  With lots of M&A activities going on in this sector, investors seem to be keeping their money in this sector.  BIIB is still strong.  CELG and AMGN are a bit weak.  BMRN popped higher to a new all-time high on Friday.  GEVA is also strong.  REGN could see a breakout.

XLE (energy)

XLE fell lower last week.  RIG, DO, and NOV are really weak.  So, are CVX and XOM.  APA, APC, OXY, HES, and EOG all seem to be sliding lower.

SOXX (semiconductor)

SOXX is still hanging on, closing above its 30-day MA.  MU has been falling like a rock.  But, winners such as AVGO are certainly holding up this sector.  BRCM is neutral.  XLNX, ASML, and ALTR are getting weaker.

Financials are probably the most relevant sector this week.  So, we will be watching these closely.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

Posted to Ecstatic Plays on Mar 16, 2015 — 1:03 AM
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