The 13F filings are in and I have spent hours going through them this week. After sorting through the buying and selling activities of my favorite value and activist managers I have reached some anecdotal conclusions about  the quarter. There appears to have been a lot more selling than buying amongst the value crowd. Ruane Cunniff sold 2 stocks for every one they bought in the quarter. Kahn Brothers sold 4 for every one they purchased. Mario Gabelli’s funds also had about a 4 to 1 ratio of buys to sells in the three month period. Third Avenue Funds had about a 3 to 1 ratio. It looked to me like the majority of the buying was in the beleaguered and battered oil sector and financial stocks in the quarter,

The exception to the rule was the community bank stock specialist and activists. Most of them bought more stocks than they sold in the quarter. Lawrence Seidman ,PL Capital , Joseph Stilwell, FJ Capital, Banc Funds LLC, Jeffrey Gendell and Clover Partners bought more banks that they sold in the final 3 month of the year. The late Peter Cundill used to say that regardless of what is going on in the world and the market “There is always something to do.” Right now as news of geopolitical and economic events churn around that world that something is community banks. Roger Ibbotson study on liquidity demonstrated that illiquid value stocks outperform other approaches to investing and community banks stocks right now are the epitome of illiquid value stocks. If you are not buying these stocks you should be. There are still plenty of banks around to buy and we added 2 super cheap banks with activist involvement this morning at less than 80% of book value

Speaking of geopolitical events Greece is continuing its David versus Goliath Act but Goliath was not German. Greece requested a six month extension of their loans to buy time to reach a compromise but without the underlying conditions originally established. Greek finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis submitted the request via a letter saying that Greece was willing to abide by the general terms of the bailout loan agreement, but not the an underlying memorandum of understanding containing conditions for the country to receive loan payments. Greek Labor Minister Panos Skourletisrnment said that the request ““in no way translates into an extension of the existing program, nor will it be accompanied by the known disastrous measures.” The Germans had a simple answer ot the request. NO.

Both sides are playing a game of fiscal chicken and there will be no winner should Greece run out of money at the end f the Month or leaves the Eurozone. If Greece defauts Germnay takes the largest losses as they are the largest creditor via ECB membership and direct bail out loans. Greece will be devastated if they run out of cash and have to exit the Euro and print drachmas to pay salaries and benefits much less make loan repayments. The winner I have been able ot find so far are tourist looking for a cheap Greek vacation paid for in nearly worthless Drachmas. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras won election by making promises with other people’s money and now he has to find a way to appease Europe, particularly Germany, without losing all credibility at home. The two sides will meet again tomorrow to see if they can twist the language around to suit both sides.

Spring training is starting this week and all over Florid and Arizona you can hear the whistle and slap of fastballs hitting mitts as pitchers and catchers reported this week. With the daughter’s wedding the first week of March, sister in law in town the week after that and a little vacation week the following week , my spring training exposure will be limited this year. I am starting to preparing my annual preview and predictions and hopefully we can do as well as we did last year when we had all the play-off teams and had the Royals going deep into the playoffs but not the Series. At first glance the two teams with the biggest surprise potential are the White Sox and the Marlins with the Cubs also having an outside shot at a surprising play-off run. We have a lot of numbers to crunch and folks to talk to before the final paper is done but Sox and marlins look a lot better in 2015. Of course unlike everyone else I think the Orioles have an outstanding chance to repeat. Never underestimate the potential of Chris Davis on Adderall and Buck in the dugout.

Have a great week everyone

Tim

At long last its time to spend some time

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWKA9Zi5-_Y&list=PLkBCf5YYXJcoB8Rgzk5fFqg0Ofvx_vajM&index=6