Weekly Wrap-Up + Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, FAS, XRT, XLE, BTK

Once again, markets made new highs last week.  Things faltered a bit on Monday, but, buying continued on Tuesday.  Wednesday saw a quick pullback in the morning, but, things leveled out in the afternoon and glided higher on Thursday.  Friday brought a big jump as China's rate cut inspired the bulls.

We had another mixed week.  But, we are still trading very small, holding mostly cash.  Here are the closed trades for the week:

GLD Options Sell to close 10.00 (1.42%) of GLD Dec 20 2014 Call 114.0 at 2.92000 -14.12% ($-480.00) Loss
GILD Options Sell to close 5.00 (0.61%) of GILD Nov 28 2014 Put 102.0 at 2.50000 15.74% ($170.00) Profit
GILD Options Sell to close 5.00 (0.59%) of GILD Nov 28 2014 Put 102.0 at 2.41000 11.57% ($125.00) Profit
APA Options Sell to close 10.00 (2.06%) of APA Dec 20 2014 Call 72.5 at 4.30000 45.76% ($1,350.00) Profit
AMZN Options Sell to close 5.00 (1.65%) of AMZN Nov 28 2014 Call 330.0 at 6.75000 22.73% ($625.00) Profit
FAS Options Sell to close 10.00 (0.74%) of FAS Nov 22 2014 Put 117.0 at 1.50000 -11.76% ($-200.00) Loss
SLB Options Sell to close 10.00 (0.45%) of SLB Nov 22 2014 Call 95.0 at 0.90000 -64.57% ($-1,640.00) Loss
TSLA Options Sell to close 5.00 (0.33%) of TSLA Nov 28 2014 Call 260.0 at 1.34000 -72.65% ($-1,780.00) Loss
AMGN Options Sell to close 10.00 (0.25%) of AMGN Nov 22 2014 Put 157.5 at 0.50000 -78.26% ($-1,800.00) Loss
BIDU Options Sell to close 10.00 (2.02%) of BIDU Nov 22 2014 Put 245.0 at 4.20000 -27.59% ($-1,600.00) Loss
AMZN Options Sell to close 5.00 (0.51%) of AMZN Nov 22 2014 Call 330.0 at 2.10000 -70.42% ($-2,500.00) Loss
NFLX Options Sell to close 10.00 (3.75%) of NFLX Nov 22 2014 Call 385.0 at 8.00000 22.14% ($1,450.00) Profit

Our other portfolio, Happy Trades, did much better this week, and with trades that are much less risky (Click here to see the Weekly Wrap-Up report from Happy Trades).

The Dow added +175.32 points; SPX added +23.68 points; Nasdaq gained +24.34 points.  Gold bounced to near $1200/ounce.  Oil finally found a breather in its drop, closing at around $76.8/barrel.  At the time of this writing, Asian markets were mostly up.  Here's where the US markets stood after Friday's close:

SPX

SPX added +10.75 points to close at 2063.5.  The MACD was still flat.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq gained +11.1 points to close at 4712.97.  The MACD was down slightly.

The market indices got a nice pop on Friday, but, could not hold on to most of the gains.  For the new week, things will be very interesting.  If stocks continue to push higher, we will see a new breakout!  For SPX, it will have to rise above 2080.  For Nasdaq, it is at 4750, which it actually pushed above on Friday morning.  If things keep going higher, we should also keep an eye on the psychological Dow 18,000!  The fact that investors took profits on Friday does bring some caution.  Is more consolidation needed, or are we heading for a new breakout?  On the downside, SPX has support between 2050 to 2040.  Nasdaq has support at around 4680.  It is interesting to see things pulled back on Friday.  To some degree, it was perhaps because of the options expiration.  Fund managers were protecting their stocks, trying to prevent them from being called away, and/or they had puts that were going to expire because of the big jump.

This will be a short week due to Thanksgiving on Thursday.  The market is of course closed.  It will only open until 1pm EST on Friday.  So, for most practical reasons, we only have three trading days in the coming week.

Sector Watch

FAS (financial)

FAS got a big jump on Friday.  But, it didn't hold on the all of the gains.  BLK stood out on Friday, rallying until the close.  GS, BAC, JPM, and WFC all pulled back.  

XRT (retail)

XRT made new all-time highs last week.  Even though it gave up the gains on Friday, it was just extra icing on the cake.  The whole retail sector is ramping up in expectation of a strong holiday season.  RL, ROST, TGT have rallied far.  I think we should look at AMZN, OSTK, EBAY, and AAPL.

XLE (energy)

XLE finally broke out on Friday.  It has bee trying to establish a base for a long time.  We'll be watching EOG, APA, APC, OXY, HES, NOV, and SLB.

BTK (biotech)

BTK has been consolidating.  But, Friday did not bring a breakout.  If it comes down from here, it could go bearish.  This, we have to be very vigilant of.  Biotechs have been leaders in this long rally, and has been leading indicators for pullbacks as well.  BIIB and GILD are already in bearish territory.  CELG, VRTX, BMRN, and ILMN are all hanging on the cliff, so to speak.

Even though we had an initial big jump on Friday and created yet another record-breaking week, there are still signs of cautious.  But, so far, downside positions have not been easy to play.  This is part of the reason why we are keeping a lot of cash.  But, this could be the week that the market sorts things out!

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

Posted to Ecstatic Plays on Nov 24, 2014 — 12:11 AM
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