> FRIDAY: Flattish close after a strong rally is a win for the bulls considering the risk this weekend. Besides, we knew that a fade was likely this pm.
- Video to recap and what price action is coming next week: video
> NEXT WEEK: Short week and those are usually dramatic (in either direction).
- Sunday night futures open and we get NEW TARIFFs
- Wed: Fed Beige book (imp for how the regions are doing) and bunch of Fed heads talking.
- JOBS: ADP then Govt NFP (Fri) which is really important to Sep Fed cut since JOBS are 1 of the 2 Fed mandates.
> TRADING: I am still guarded with the short term while maintaining an upside end to this year.
>TLT (BONDS risk): Bonds are also stuck in a tight range (see chart for levels to watch). Usually stocks like it when TLT falls (with exceptions). I am short TLT as noted and was profitable this morning. Near day's end the TLT got a big spike but the levels are still okay with me. chart
>SPY (IMPORTANT LEVELS): 293 is first test for bulls. Then if above 294.4 can gather momentum. But below 291 there is the chance to fill the gap to 289. In general, and considering the drop from the 8/1 10% tariff tweet, the price action has been normal. We dropped big but recovered half and now the bulls are fighting to earn more upside. Meaning halfway back is a normal place to stall. Tues/Wed action will be important. chart
>VXX (Important levels): The FEAR index (VXX) is basically stuck in tight range. Anything above 27.5ish would cause a problem for stocks. And below 26.8 Stocks can continue recovering. chart
>SLV (Important SIGN): I have a hunch that when Silver breaks down it will mark a big rally in stocks. SLV has been on a monster rally and has cost me money. BUT I may be seeing some signs ahead of dips. chart
>Yield Curve (10/2s) (STILL INVERTED): The yield curve bounced back but STILL inverted and it's been days. Something to watch. chart
>GLD (Trade update): Gold finally losing some steam. The bulls are too complacent being long it. That's why I noted short. Trend is bearish but it does react to headlines so tight leash. chart